douthat on GA runoffs

 Ross Douthat's essay on today's GA runoffs is good; you can read it here: https://nyti.ms/3b8cm5t.

He thinks Republicans would do well to distance themselves from Trump. Trump's post-election antics alone are enough evidence to take Douthat's suggestion seriously. If Republicans like Hawley and Cruz continue to challenge the election--as they plan to do tomorrow before congress--they will further associate themselves with the kind of conspiracy theory paranoia that is central to Trump's politics. This much is somewhat obvious.

But Douthat goes on to make a bolder claim than this; he thinks it would be beneficial for the Democrats to win today's GA runoffs. The reason is that a Republican loss would demonstrate to GOP that there are real, serious consequences for allowing their party to be led by Trump. This loss makes makes the claim that Trump's post-election antics aren't just empty rhetoric; they actually can contribute toward a loss in both the house and the senate. Douthat hopes that this loss would be a good lesson for the GOP to get their act together in 2024 by distancing themselves from Trump's behavior.

I agree that a loss in GA today would hurt the GOP for the next four years (and arguably more!). But I do have one reservation about Douthat's proposal: a loss at the GA runoffs today isn't obviously caused by Trump's post-election antics. If this is true, then it's difficult for Douthat to claim that a loss in the GA runoffs is a consequence of Trumpian politics. And there's some reason to think that Trump's antics aren't causally related to the GA runoffs. One reason is that when Republicans did quite well in November in congressional races, such success wasn't clearly attributable to something about Trump. Instead, the popularly cited cause of the widespread Democratic loss in these states is the radical rhetoric on the left (e.g. ACAB, Defund, etc.). 

But maybe this reservation doesn't matter much. Even if a Democratic victory was caused mostly by something else besides Trump, Douthat is still probably right to maintain that most will see it as a consequence of the GOP allowing Trump to use it as a platform.